NFL Divisional Round: Sunday Games

image obtained from NFL.com

+NFL Divisional Round: Sunday Games

We're down to the last eight teams standing in the NFL this weekend. The remaining games all look like they could go either way, and are getting much more difficult to pick. I'm taking a 9-2 record into this week at picking games since week 17, with that on the line... here we go! 

+Seattle Seahawks  @ +Atlanta Falcons- 1:00pm ET on Fox

This game is a match-up of a very resilient Seahawks team that overcame a 14-0 deficit in the first quarter last week vs. Washington and scored 24 unanswered over the next 3 quarters while playing absurdly great defense and an Atlanta team with the best record in the NFC. Atlanta has been widely overlooked for consistently having the best record in their league all season. While it may be upsetting to the Falcons players that they have been written off all season, it's for a good reason. Matt Ryan has played exemplary at home in his career, but in the playoffs he is a dismal 0-3. 

So is this the season that the Falcons take the jump and finally make it to a NFC Championship game? Not so fast. The Falcons have added quite a few pieces this year, and have had breakout performances by Julio Jones and Asante Samuel, but Seattle also matches up very well against this Atlanta team. Atlanta has what may be the best receiving core in the league right now in Roddy White, Julio Jones, and the legend Tony Gonzalez. Unfortunately for them, Seattle has the most dynamic secondary in the league to cover them up, and a ground attack to keep the Falcons offense off the field as much as possible. 

For these reasons, I am picking Seattle in this game. I realize that Russell Wilson is only a rookie, but he is the most poised rookie I have seen in a long time. He is a team player that puts up pancake blocks on the secondary for his running back. Speaking of that running back, Marshawn Lynch took over the game against Washington in the second half breaking off run after run for ten yards or more. He ended up with 132 yards on 20 carries and one TD. His change of pace back is no slouch either in Turbin, and Wilson rips off runs every time he is given the opportunity. This rushing attack is very formidable and could carry this team all the way to hoisting the trophy at the end of the year. 

One major factor that was taken away from Seattle's potent defense was Chris Clemons. He is able to pressure the quarterback and force bad throws. If the Seahawks can step up and still get to the passer without the presence of Clemons, this game should go in their favor. Also, keep in mind Seattle had to sign a new kicker for this playoff game with Steven Hauschka having to go on IR. If they lose by a field goal or on a missed field goal... that would also not surprise me. 

Prediction: Seattle 24- Atlanta 20

Player of the Game: Marshawn Lynch

+Houston Texans  @ +New England Patriots - 4:30pm ET on +CBS 

Week after week, I keep defending these +Houston Texans. I keep saying top to bottom, their roster is as good as any in the league. I'm standing by that statement, but I'm not sure that this team can win a Super Bowl anymore. They seem to lack the mental toughness to put the ball in the endzone when they need to, and they don't seem to be able to win when the pressure is on. I've been on the wagon all season, but I think now may be the time to jump off. 

My only remaining defense for this match-up is that most teams that get a rematch chance play much better in the second meeting. The first time these teams matched up, it wasn't much of a game. The final ended up 14-42 in New England's favor. Granted there were a few blown calls by the refs that gave New England multiple second chance points. I recall a pass interference call on Daniel Manning on an overthrown pass directed at Wes Welker, that even if Wes was 8 feet tall, he still couldn't have put a hand on it. There were also a few fumbles that bounced directly to Patriots players, and some forced passes by Schaub that were intercepted. 

With all that being said, I still think that the Patriots would have won that game had the officiating been better, or a those few fumbles gone to Houston instead. But would that game have been 42-14? No way! I believe if all of the things that favored the Patriots in that game had gone to Houston, this game would have been a field goal or TD differential. 

Here's the things I believe favor each team. 

1. Quarterback- definitely a nod to the Patriots, Brady is in a category with few other signal callers. Schaub is capable of playing at a level close to Brady, but we've never seen it consistently in a season, let alone a game. 
2. Running game- This one is much closer, but Arian Foster is a much more complete back to me than Stevan Ridley. Arian Foster could be the difference in this game. If he's able to establish himself against this suspect defense, it could be a long day on the sidelines for Tom Brady and that potent offense. 
3. Receiving core- This is another close one, but New England has more weapons (not necessarily better ones.) Andre Johnson is the best receiver in this game no doubt, but Tom Brady has Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski to throw to. Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson are great, don't get me wrong. But Brady has way more options and that is why I give the Patriots the mark. 
4. Front seven (Defense)- One name, JJ Watt. He is able to take over games, and if he's able to get to Brady, we've seen him struggle in the past against the pass rush (see last two Super Bowls against the Giants.) Houston has the better defense in this game without a doubt, and it should help keep the running game at bay. Although, Vince Wilfork is able to single-handed take away running plays for the Patriots, Houston wins this category. 
5. Offensive line- New England. Take away their ability to get away with holding on every play and it might be a wash, but since they do... the Patriots get the mark. 
6. Secondary- Although this was at one point a strength for Houston, they are starting to play worse as the season grows older. I don't believe this is really an area of strength for the Patriots either, but they are able to force some turnovers so a very slight nod to New England. 

So who am I picking in this game? It's hard to pick against a Tom Brady led team and I don't think I will. This is really one of the harder games for me to pick. I really think whoever gets an early lead wins this game. Almost everything I've said means Houston will win, but I can't pick against the Patriots at home in the playoffs. 

Prediction: New England 31- Houston 27

Player of the Game: Tom Brady